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Main Women's Bantamweight

Liz Carmouche vs Jessica Andrade

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga ·Climate Pledge Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Liz Carmouche
Jessica Andrade
36% 64%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
62"
29
Age
Δ 8y
22
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Carmouche: 50 sig / 3 TD · Andrade: 10 sig / 1 TD
Liz Carmouche
Jessica Andrade
22
Sig strikes landed
32
47
Sig strikes attempted
54
42
Total strikes landed
75
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
38%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Liz Carmouche

"Girlrilla"
13-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
Blue corner

Jessica Andrade

"Bate Estaca"
0-0
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22