Main
Welterweight
Rory MacDonald vs Jake Ellenberger
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rory MacDonald
Jake Ellenberger
67%
33%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
20-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
32-15
W4
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
MacDonald: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Ellenberger: 19 sig / 1 TD
Rory MacDonald
Jake Ellenberger
36
Sig strikes landed
29
77
Sig strikes attempted
69
54
Total strikes landed
35
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
179s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
20-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
W2
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
32-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—