Prelims1
Lightweight
Michael Chiesa vs Jorge Masvidal
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Jorge Masvidal
45%
55%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
21-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
36-17
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Chiesa: 24 sig / 2 TD ·
Masvidal: 24 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chiesa
Jorge Masvidal
25
Sig strikes landed
25
77
Sig strikes attempted
85
43
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
5.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
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