Prelims1
Lightweight
Danny Castillo vs Tim Means
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Danny Castillo
Tim Means
31%
69%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
34
Age
Δ 4y
29
18-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
33-18-1
W1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Castillo: 25 sig / 6 TD ·
Means: 38 sig / 0 TD
Danny Castillo
Tim Means
34
Sig strikes landed
43
84
Sig strikes attempted
104
54
Total strikes landed
65
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
7.2
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
233s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
L1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—