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Mac Danzig vs Melvin Guillard

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga ·Climate Pledge Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Mac Danzig
Melvin Guillard
42% 58%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 3y
30
21-13-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
32-19-2
L1
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Danzig: 23 sig / 0 TD · Guillard: 39 sig / 0 TD
Mac Danzig
Melvin Guillard
34
Sig strikes landed
33
72
Sig strikes attempted
77
57
Total strikes landed
44
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
156s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Mac Danzig

21-13-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
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W UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
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L UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
L2

Melvin Guillard

"The Young Assassin"
32-19-2 (3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
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L UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—