🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson vs John Moraga
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
John Moraga
86%
14%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
28-3-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
20-7
W3
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 5
Johnson: 67 sig / 12 TD ·
Moraga: 32 sig / 1 TD
Demetrious Johnson
John Moraga
57
Sig strikes landed
45
108
Sig strikes attempted
119
91
Total strikes landed
55
3.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
6.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
304s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
D
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
Blue corner
W2
John Moraga
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—