Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Main Welterweight

William Macario vs Leonardo Santos

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum ·Paulo Sarasate Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
William Macario
Leonardo Santos
64% 36%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
22
Age
Δ 11y
33

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Macario: 35 sig / 2 TD · Santos: 22 sig / 1 TD
William Macario
Leonardo Santos
39
Sig strikes landed
38
79
Sig strikes attempted
75
50
Total strikes landed
55
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
103s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

William Macario

"Patolino"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner

Leonardo Santos

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33