Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Main Heavyweight

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Fabricio Werdum

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum ·Paulo Sarasate Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Fabricio Werdum
75% 25%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
37
Age
Δ 1y
36
35-10-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
25-9-1
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Nogueira: 14 sig / 0 TD · Werdum: 32 sig / 1 TD
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Fabricio Werdum
32
Sig strikes landed
40
73
Sig strikes attempted
71
40
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.0
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
104s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

"Minotauro"
35-10-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W2

Fabricio Werdum

"Vai Cavalo"
25-9-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
W UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—