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Thiago Silva vs Rafael Cavalcante

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum ·Paulo Sarasate Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Thiago Silva
Rafael Cavalcante
78% 22%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
L2
Current streak
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4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Silva: 37 sig / 0 TD · Cavalcante: 24 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Silva
Rafael Cavalcante
42
Sig strikes landed
38
96
Sig strikes attempted
83
55
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Thiago Silva

19-6 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
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L UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
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Blue corner

Rafael Cavalcante

"Feijao"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33