Prelims1
Middleweight
Caio Magalhaes vs Karlos Vemola
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
·Paulo Sarasate Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Caio Magalhaes
Karlos Vemola
49%
51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
10-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-6
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Magalhaes: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Vemola: 30 sig / 2 TD
Caio Magalhaes
Karlos Vemola
22
Sig strikes landed
33
56
Sig strikes attempted
70
47
Total strikes landed
60
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
184s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Caio Magalhaes
"Hellboy"
10-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
Blue corner
L1
Karlos Vemola
17-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—