Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Prelims1 Featherweight

Rodrigo Damm vs Mizuto Hirota

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum ·Paulo Sarasate Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Rodrigo Damm
Mizuto Hirota
48% 52%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
13-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-11-2
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Damm: 76 sig / 2 TD · Hirota: 102 sig / 0 TD
Rodrigo Damm
Mizuto Hirota
38
Sig strikes landed
30
87
Sig strikes attempted
78
54
Total strikes landed
46
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Rodrigo Damm

13-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
L1

Mizuto Hirota

"Pugnus"
18-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—