Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Prelims1 Middleweight

Antonio Braga Neto vs Anthony Smith

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum ·Paulo Sarasate Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Antonio Braga Neto
Anthony Smith
34% 66%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
26
Age
Δ 1y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Neto: 6 sig / 1 TD · Smith: 5 sig / 0 TD
Antonio Braga Neto
Anthony Smith
31
Sig strikes landed
40
73
Sig strikes attempted
81
47
Total strikes landed
56
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
103s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Antonio Braga Neto

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Anthony Smith

"Lionheart"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25