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Prelims1 Welterweight

Ildemar Alcantara vs Leandro Silva

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum ·Paulo Sarasate Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Ildemar Alcantara
Leandro Silva
45% 55%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alcantara: 33 sig / 3 TD · Silva: 50 sig / 0 TD
Ildemar Alcantara
Leandro Silva
33
Sig strikes landed
28
76
Sig strikes attempted
59
46
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ildemar Alcantara

"Marajo"
22-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
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Blue corner

Leandro Silva

"Buscape"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28