Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Prelims1 Featherweight

Godofredo Pepey vs Felipe Arantes

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum ·Paulo Sarasate Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Godofredo Pepey
Felipe Arantes
54% 46%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
26
Age
Δ 1y
25
14-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
18-10-2
W1
Current streak
D1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pepey: 4 sig / 1 TD · Arantes: 27 sig / 0 TD
Godofredo Pepey
Felipe Arantes
38
Sig strikes landed
43
90
Sig strikes attempted
87
58
Total strikes landed
59
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
171s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Godofredo Pepey

14-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
L UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
D1

Felipe Arantes

"Sertanejo"
18-10-2 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 3 fights · 1-1
Last 3
D UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
W UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—