Prelims1
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao vs Vaughan Lee
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
·Paulo Sarasate Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Vaughan Lee
88%
12%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
29-10
Career record
Δ 23 pp
15-13-1
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Assuncao: 17 sig / 3 TD ·
Lee: 14 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Vaughan Lee
34
Sig strikes landed
23
67
Sig strikes attempted
58
51
Total strikes landed
36
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
160s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Raphael Assuncao
29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Vaughan Lee
15-13-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—