Prelims1
Lightweight
Edson Barboza vs Rafaello Oliveira
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Rafaello Oliveira
68%
32%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
28
Age
Δ 4y
31
25-14
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-8
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Barboza: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 19 sig / 0 TD
Edson Barboza
Rafaello Oliveira
41
Sig strikes landed
27
95
Sig strikes attempted
86
49
Total strikes landed
47
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.9
0.4
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.70
Knockdowns
0.00
38s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Rafaello Oliveira
"Tractor"
18-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—