Prelims1
Heavyweight
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Dave Herman
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gabriel Gonzaga
Dave Herman
25%
75%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
17-12
Career record
Δ 17 pp
22-7
L1
Current streak
L3
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gonzaga: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Herman: 3 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Gonzaga
Dave Herman
16
Sig strikes landed
31
36
Sig strikes attempted
53
34
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
127s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
17-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L3
Dave Herman
22-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—