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Prelims2 Welterweight

Seth Baczynski vs Brian Melancon

UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Seth Baczynski
Brian Melancon
57% 43%
Why
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
L1
Current streak
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6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Baczynski: 13 sig / 0 TD · Melancon: 24 sig / 1 TD
Seth Baczynski
Brian Melancon
35
Sig strikes landed
27
88
Sig strikes attempted
66
52
Total strikes landed
35
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
150s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Seth Baczynski

"The Polish Pistola"
20-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
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W UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
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W UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
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W UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
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W UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
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Blue corner

Brian Melancon

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31