Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Leben
Andrew Craig
60%
40%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
22-12
Career record
Δ 0 pp
9-5
L2
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Leben: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Craig: 64 sig / 2 TD
Chris Leben
Andrew Craig
30
Sig strikes landed
29
58
Sig strikes attempted
63
50
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Chris Leben
"The Crippler"
22-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
L1
Andrew Craig
"Highlight"
9-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—