Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Dennis Siver
76%
24%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
30
Age
Δ 5y
34
32-14
Career record
Δ 1 pp
24-11
W4
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Swanson: 43 sig / 1 TD ·
Siver: 26 sig / 1 TD
Cub Swanson
Dennis Siver
50
Sig strikes landed
55
125
Sig strikes attempted
138
56
Total strikes landed
76
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
25s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Cub Swanson
32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
Blue corner
W2
Dennis Siver
24-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—