Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tim Kennedy
Roger Gracie
67%
33%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kennedy: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Gracie: 12 sig / 2 TD
Tim Kennedy
Roger Gracie
36
Sig strikes landed
34
71
Sig strikes attempted
78
54
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
180s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tim Kennedy
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Roger Gracie
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32