Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Stout
James Krause
28%
72%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
W1
Current streak
—
8
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Stout: 73 sig / 2 TD ·
Krause: 96 sig / 1 TD
Sam Stout
James Krause
49
Sig strikes landed
57
131
Sig strikes attempted
125
70
Total strikes landed
64
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
21-12-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
James Krause
"The"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27