Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Shields
Tyron Woodley
70%
30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
31-9-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
20-7-1
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Shields: 82 sig / 0 TD ·
Woodley: 60 sig / 0 TD
Jake Shields
Tyron Woodley
29
Sig strikes landed
39
92
Sig strikes attempted
102
54
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.70
139s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Shields
31-9-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W1
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—