Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pat Barry
Shawn Jordan
24%
76%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
9-7
Career record
Δ 15 pp
20-8
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barry: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Jordan: 10 sig / 0 TD
Pat Barry
Shawn Jordan
17
Sig strikes landed
26
37
Sig strikes attempted
53
18
Total strikes landed
51
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.2
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
31s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Pat Barry
"HD"
9-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
Blue corner
W1
Shawn Jordan
"The Savage"
20-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—