Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roy Nelson
Stipe Miocic
30%
70%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 7"
80"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
23-14
Career record
Δ 15 pp
20-6
W3
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Miocic: 106 sig / 1 TD
Roy Nelson
Stipe Miocic
18
Sig strikes landed
36
56
Sig strikes attempted
63
29
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
112s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
23-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Stipe Miocic
20-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—