Main
Light Heavyweight
Rashad Evans vs Dan Henderson
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
·Canada Life Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rashad Evans
Dan Henderson
60%
40%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
34
Age
Δ 9y
43
19-9-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
32-16
L2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Evans: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Henderson: 40 sig / 0 TD
Rashad Evans
Dan Henderson
42
Sig strikes landed
43
107
Sig strikes attempted
87
66
Total strikes landed
69
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
6.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
209s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L1
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
32-16
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—