Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jussier Formiga
Chris Cariaso
67%
33%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
23-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-9
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Formiga: 10 sig / 4 TD ·
Cariaso: 26 sig / 1 TD
Jussier Formiga
Chris Cariaso
32
Sig strikes landed
34
92
Sig strikes attempted
75
44
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
128s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jussier Formiga
23-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
L1
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
17-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—