Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lucas Martins
Jeremy Larsen
85%
15%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
24
Age
Δ 4y
29
19-4
Career record
Δ 25 pp
8-6
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Martins: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Larsen: 52 sig / 2 TD
Lucas Martins
Jeremy Larsen
31
Sig strikes landed
24
75
Sig strikes attempted
58
51
Total strikes landed
40
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
155s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Lucas Martins
"Mineiro"
19-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
L1
Jeremy Larsen
8-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—