Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Lineker
Azamat Gashimov
89%
11%
Why
23
Age
Δ 0y
23
32-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
8-4
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lineker: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Gashimov: 7 sig / 0 TD
John Lineker
Azamat Gashimov
41
Sig strikes landed
41
102
Sig strikes attempted
132
67
Total strikes landed
61
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.80
Knockdowns
0.00
142s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
32-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
Blue corner
L1
Azamat Gashimov
8-4
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—