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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Iuri Alcantara vs Iliarde Santos

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold ·Arena Jaragua
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Iuri Alcantara
Iliarde Santos
75% 25%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Alcantara: 19 sig / 0 TD · Santos: 3 sig / 0 TD
Iuri Alcantara
Iliarde Santos
32
Sig strikes landed
27
79
Sig strikes attempted
63
56
Total strikes landed
48
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
168s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Iuri Alcantara

"Marajo"
35-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 4 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
W UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
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W UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
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Blue corner

Iliarde Santos

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33