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Prelims1 Welterweight

Paulo Thiago vs Michel Prazeres

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold ·Arena Jaragua
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Paulo Thiago
Michel Prazeres
29% 71%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 7"
68"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
L2
Current streak
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6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thiago: 46 sig / 2 TD · Prazeres: 30 sig / 3 TD
Paulo Thiago
Michel Prazeres
22
Sig strikes landed
33
70
Sig strikes attempted
55
40
Total strikes landed
58
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Paulo Thiago

18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
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L UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
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W UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
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L UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
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L UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
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Blue corner

Michel Prazeres

"Tractor"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32