Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Fabio Maldonado vs Roger Hollett
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
·Arena Jaragua
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fabio Maldonado
Roger Hollett
73%
27%
Why
33
Age
Δ 1y
35
23-12
Career record
Δ 3 pp
13-6
L3
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maldonado: 100 sig / 1 TD ·
Hollett: 29 sig / 2 TD
Fabio Maldonado
Roger Hollett
50
Sig strikes landed
40
96
Sig strikes attempted
86
81
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
99s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Fabio Maldonado
"Caipira de Aco"
23-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
Blue corner
L1
Roger Hollett
"The Hulk"
13-6
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—