Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Hacran Dias
Nik Lentz
58%
42%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
24-6-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
31-12-2
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dias: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Lentz: 42 sig / 4 TD
Hacran Dias
Nik Lentz
18
Sig strikes landed
25
44
Sig strikes attempted
52
49
Total strikes landed
48
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
241s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Hacran Dias
"Barnabe"
24-6-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—