Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Joao Zeferino
54%
46%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
W1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Natal: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Zeferino: 14 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Natal
Joao Zeferino
46
Sig strikes landed
41
102
Sig strikes attempted
95
68
Total strikes landed
54
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
153s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
D
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
Blue corner
Joao Zeferino
"The Brazilian Samurai"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27