Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Mike Rio
78%
22%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
29-9
Career record
Δ 8 pp
11-5
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Trinaldo: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Rio: 5 sig / 1 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Mike Rio
26
Sig strikes landed
22
51
Sig strikes attempted
50
40
Total strikes landed
39
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
143s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
46%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Mike Rio
"The Wolverine"
11-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—