Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gleison Tibau
John Cholish
81%
19%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
30
Age
Δ 0y
29
33-15
Career record
Δ 2 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Tibau: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Cholish: 9 sig / 0 TD
Gleison Tibau
John Cholish
38
Sig strikes landed
35
89
Sig strikes attempted
81
62
Total strikes landed
47
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
205s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gleison Tibau
33-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
Blue corner
L1
John Cholish
8-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—