Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Evan Dunham
79%
21%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
29
Age
Δ 3y
31
33-17
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-9-1
W3
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dos Anjos: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Dunham: 68 sig / 3 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Evan Dunham
47
Sig strikes landed
42
115
Sig strikes attempted
119
58
Total strikes landed
65
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.7
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
149s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
Blue corner
W1
Evan Dunham
19-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—