Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Chris Camozzi
58%
42%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
—
Current streak
W4
0
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Souza: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Camozzi: 4 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Chris Camozzi
36
Sig strikes landed
52
90
Sig strikes attempted
125
50
Total strikes landed
71
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jacare Souza
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
W4
Chris Camozzi
25-13
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—