Back to UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
Prelims1 Welterweight

Colton Smith vs Robert Whittaker

UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 ·MGM Grand Garden Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Colton Smith
Robert Whittaker
23% 77%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 3y
22
8-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
28-9
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Smith: 33 sig / 0 TD · Whittaker: 53 sig / 1 TD
Colton Smith
Robert Whittaker
24
Sig strikes landed
34
72
Sig strikes attempted
85
50
Total strikes landed
52
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
9.2
Takedowns attempted
-0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
326s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Colton Smith

8-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
Blue corner
W1

Robert Whittaker

"The Reaper"
28-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…