Prelims1
Lightweight
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Abel Trujillo
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Abel Trujillo
93%
7%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
25
Age
Δ 5y
30
30-0
Career record
Δ 33 pp
16-8
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nurmagomedov: 23 sig / 21 TD ·
Trujillo: 11 sig / 1 TD
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Abel Trujillo
39
Sig strikes landed
27
78
Sig strikes attempted
56
72
Total strikes landed
33
15.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
16.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
402s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
Blue corner
W1
Abel Trujillo
"Killa"
16-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—