Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
KJ Noons
86%
14%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
L1
Current streak
—
8
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerrone: 78 sig / 4 TD ·
Noons: 42 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
KJ Noons
54
Sig strikes landed
35
106
Sig strikes attempted
78
62
Total strikes landed
44
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
KJ Noons
"King"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31