Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mike Pyle
Rick Story
51%
49%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
38
Age
Δ 9y
29
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
20-9
W3
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pyle: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Story: 57 sig / 3 TD
Mike Pyle
Rick Story
33
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
76
51
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
64s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Rick Story
"The Horror"
20-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—