Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gray Maynard
TJ Grant
23%
77%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
14-7-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
22-5
W1
Current streak
W4
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Maynard: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Grant: 26 sig / 0 TD
Gray Maynard
TJ Grant
32
Sig strikes landed
55
91
Sig strikes attempted
113
47
Total strikes landed
78
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.8
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
73s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gray Maynard
14-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
D
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W4
TJ Grant
22-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—