Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Prelims1 Middleweight

Bristol Marunde vs Clint Hester

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Bristol Marunde
Clint Hester
51% 49%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Marunde: 21 sig / 3 TD · Hester: 66 sig / 0 TD
Bristol Marunde
Clint Hester
38
Sig strikes landed
38
77
Sig strikes attempted
79
54
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
133s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Bristol Marunde

0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Clint Hester

"Headbussa"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26