Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Prelims1 Middleweight

Luke Barnatt vs Collin Hart

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Luke Barnatt
Collin Hart
67% 33%
Why
25
Age
Δ 2y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barnatt: 113 sig / 1 TD · Hart: 95 sig / 2 TD
Luke Barnatt
Collin Hart
37
Sig strikes landed
30
77
Sig strikes attempted
66
54
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
152s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Luke Barnatt

"The Bigslow"
0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Collin Hart

0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24