Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Prelims1 Middleweight

Josh Samman vs Kevin Casey

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Josh Samman
Kevin Casey
77% 23%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Samman: 36 sig / 0 TD · Casey: 14 sig / 0 TD
Josh Samman
Kevin Casey
38
Sig strikes landed
30
79
Sig strikes attempted
60
56
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Josh Samman

"Anqa"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Kevin Casey

"King"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32