Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Main Middleweight

Robert McDaniel vs Gilbert Smith

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Robert McDaniel
Gilbert Smith
85% 15%
Why
30
Age
Δ 2y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
McDaniel: 35 sig / 0 TD · Smith: 14 sig / 3 TD
Robert McDaniel
Gilbert Smith
39
Sig strikes landed
30
83
Sig strikes attempted
67
55
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Robert McDaniel

"Bubba"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner

Gilbert Smith

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32