Main
Heavyweight
Travis Browne vs Gabriel Gonzaga
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Travis Browne
Gabriel Gonzaga
76%
24%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
18-8-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-11
L1
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Browne: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Gonzaga: 1 sig / 0 TD
Travis Browne
Gabriel Gonzaga
24
Sig strikes landed
14
53
Sig strikes attempted
33
38
Total strikes landed
22
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
108s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Travis Browne
"Hapa"
18-8-1
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
D
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
Blue corner
W2
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
18-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—