Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Main Middleweight

Uriah Hall vs Kelvin Gastelum

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Uriah Hall
Kelvin Gastelum
44% 56%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 8"
72"
29
Age
Δ 7y
22

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Hall: 44 sig / 2 TD · Gastelum: 31 sig / 3 TD
Uriah Hall
Kelvin Gastelum
34
Sig strikes landed
36
73
Sig strikes attempted
69
49
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
123s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Uriah Hall

"Prime Time"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Kelvin Gastelum

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22