Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Main Women's Bantamweight

Miesha Tate vs Cat Zingano

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Miesha Tate
Cat Zingano
70% 30%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Tate: 23 sig / 3 TD · Zingano: 35 sig / 1 TD
Miesha Tate
Cat Zingano
40
Sig strikes landed
36
80
Sig strikes attempted
76
76
Total strikes landed
64
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
180s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Miesha Tate

"Cupcake"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Cat Zingano

"Alpha"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31